Often the titans of the technology industry forget that the sky-high promises to do. And while most industries are unattainable forecasts is a sign of bad management in the IT-sector, where the goals of the company are built on crazy ideas, it's just part of doing business. She literally spelled out in the credo of the Valley: provallya fast provallya often.
To better appreciate how the best minds of the Millennium have failed earlier promises, take a look at a selection of such cases.
Bill gates and destroying spam
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Promise: at the World economic forum, Microsoft founder bill gates announced: "in two years the spam problem will be solved". There is only one caveat: these words came in 2004. Then gates relied on a few ideas for the destruction of the annoying and malicious mailings: creation of a special puzzle that could be solved only by the people or for the recovery of fines from spammers.
The reality 13 years later spam is still not defeated. And even Unroll.me, the service that allowed the EN masse to unsubscribe from unnecessary emails, the result was caught selling personal data.
Sebastian Troon and online courses
The promise: in 2012, former Professor of computer science at Stanford University Sebastian Troon told that the world has already experienced the lack of accessibility of higher education. It attracted 100 000 listeners on its pilot online course at Stanford, and then resigned and founded the startup Udacity.
The company has positioned its educational projects as an inexpensive but comparable in quality, the replacement of classical higher education. In an interview Coffins assured Wired that in 50 years the world will be only 10 major institutes offering higher education — and one of them is Udacity. In addition, it will put an end to the field of educational loans.
Reality: online courses as before live, but it is difficult to say that they prevailed over traditional training. First problem: to attract audience and gain confidence, they use affiliate programs with reputable universities, using their status and career opportunities.
In addition, the survey in 2015 showed that only 15% of students of such courses to be passed before the end. The majority of those who undertook the training and have a bachelor's degree. In the end, online learning is considered only as an auxiliary element of traditional.
Larry Ellison and the Network Computer
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The promise: a year after the gathering Windows 95 Oracle has released a computer that was going to push Microsoft into the background. The so-called Network Computer was a simple, inexpensive device whose data is stored online it is possible to get rid of the roomy internal storage. Head of Oracle Larry Ellison is confidently said that sales of these computers will quickly outperform their competitors with Windows on Board.
The reality: after spending four years and $175 million, Oracle shut down the project. From a business point of view, the Network Computer was a total failure. But looking at the idea more widely, one can understand that the idea of Ellison is not devoid of meaning. As he expected, the market is now flooded more simple and cheap computers that will be able to put an end to the Microsoft monopoly.
Segway and Dean Kamen
Promise: in December 2001, Dean Kamen of Segway was released and quickly recognized his own invention a revolution in the transport industry. In an interview with Time called Kamen Segway for cars what cars are for horses and wagons." According to him, changes will occur in the next year, when his transport will appear on the sidewalks of the major world cities.
Reality: the failure of the device due to problems of accessibility and usability: at a price of $5000 it was too expensive for the average American, and with a weight of almost 100 pounds very inconvenient to use for the whole day. In addition, the gadget is ruined by a wave of negative publications in the press. Not be discounted and odious downfall of George Bush.
The RAND Corporation and electronic document management in medicine
The promise: in 2005, researchers from the RAND Corporation clearly outlined a bright future of the health sector. Doctors will get rid of paperwork and, perhaps, unnecessary offices, driving records in electronic form. It will save healthcare $81 billion.
The reality: assessment of RAND about $81 billion of benefits were based on the forecast that 90% of doctors will refuse the paper records. It is not justified — as of 2016, only 75% of American doctors have mastered modern technology. And even today, their electronic medical reports cause problems.
Data is distributed between several companies and the failure of one of them from further co-operation compromises the whole system — although in 2016 the participants of the process and it was decided to abandon such practices. Through the unfriendly interface it is difficult for doctors to get comfortable with the technology. Finally, a number of researchers insist that such a transition even increased health care costs, because now the ordering of expensive tests came back just a click away.
Jeff Bezos and delivery drones
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Promise: in December 2013, Amazon announced plans to launch high-speed delivery drones in the air. CEO Jeff Bezos talked about drones that can fly with the load to five pounds at a distance of 10 miles. This will reduce the delivery rate by an average of 30 minutes. The start of commercial exploitation of the technology expected in 2015.
Reality: it is 2017, but subscribers Amazon Prime still did not wait for the promised drones. However, the company has not dropped the case, at least as an idea. This method of delivery as ever is on testing phase in March, the retailer held a demonstration flight of the copter in a public place.
Elon Musk and telepathy
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Promise: one of the most incredible plans Mask is the realization of telepathy with computers. In April, the entrepreneur announced that his new company Neuralink should bring the virtual interface for the brain to a new level. This will allow people with special implants to share thoughts without real conversation. According to him, the concept of disability will disappear in 10 years, and full telepathy can be achieved in 8-10 years.
Reality: Musk is only one of the titans of the techno world, who implements these interfaces. For example, on a project, can enhance the ability of the brain, Facebook now works. And although the idea is inspiring, chronological predictions are depressing, one after another experts say that the implementation of the telepathic abilities is, at best, decades.
Anthony Atala and organs, printed on 3D-printer
The promise: in 2011, Dr. Anthony Atala took to the stage of a TED conference with a story about a technology that will allow printing a kidney on a 3D printer. In addition, the surgeon was invited to the stage of the patient, who 10 years ago got a bladder of artificial origin due to the doctors.
The pace of implementation of the project remained unclear, but the prospects are wonderful. Using the cell-tissue of patients for the creation of new organs, Atala was going to destroy the gap between the required and available number of donor organs.
Reality: today the technology has advanced somewhat further from the target. Atala and his team are working hard on a possibility of printing organs in Wake forest University. His laboratory has not yet produced an artificial kidney, however, in December 2016, the former surgeon reported that an artificial bone and muscle tissue was successfully implanted rodents.
Microsoft invests in the development of technology in agriculture $2 million the Company will look for promising startups and uses their services for their development.
The project "AI for Earth" was presented in London. Will lead the program, Jopp Lucas, chief specialist at Microsoft environment.
"To feed the population, the number of which is growing rapidly, farmers must produce more food and thus less impact on the environment — believe in Microsoft. — "AI for Earth" is not just grants, is a stimulus to development".
The company has already launched several projects. The money is allocated for natural resource management and biodiversity conservation.
The third project will be implemented in the field of agriculture. In India, Microsoft has partnered with the International research Institute of agricultural crops for semi-arid tropics (ICRISAT). Its purpose is to provide farm devices analyze data to improve crop yields, reduce production costs and impact on climate change.
The InnerEye project, developed by Microsoft Research, helps doctors interpret computed tomography images, creating a three-dimensional model of the bodies for 30 seconds.
This greatly speeds up the work of oncologists in detecting diseased areas.
The InnerEye project will help doctors to greatly accelerate the work with the images of internal organs and tissues of patients, thereby significantly reduce the time to detection of malignant tumors in humans and further their treatment.
In the presented solution is based on Microsoft Kinect sensors and intelligent image recognition system.
See also: In the network appeared the images of a smart watch Fitbit (PHOTO)
In the process of computed tomography obtained a series of hundreds of images, the processing of which professionals take many hours. On every picture, the doctor should cut around the body, which will be subjected to chemotherapy, then to recreate the contours of these three-dimensional image.
In this procedure, the doctor usually spends several hours while InnerEye does this automatically, spending no more than 30 seconds. After that the doctor can only check the results and if necessary make changes.
Researchers from Belgian research centre IMEC (interuniversity microelectronics center) was able to increase productivity perovskite solar panels to 23.9%, writes CleanTechnica.
A new record was set a few weeks after the Korean scientists announced an increase in the efficiency of hybrid solar cells perovskite to 22.1%. For this Belgian researchers changed perovskite with silicon. The new version has perovskit CsFAPbIBr, which increased the conversion perovskite layer to 15.3%.
The research team also changed the architecture perovskite-silicon compounds. Scientists its textured top layer to reduce reflection, and at the same time, put the chops fluid between perovskites and silicon. To reduce the cost of production, in the new solar cell uses the element area of 4 cm2. Reflecting the elements of the smaller area allowed the scientists to increase the conversion rate 25.3%, however, this would increase their cost due to the complexity of production.
Perovskite belongs to a class of crystalline materials that can be easily synthesized to replicate the properties of the mineral perovskite, which is found in nature. It is cheaper than silicon, and it is suitable for large and low-cost production. Even without perovskit the cost of solar energy already competes with fossil fuels. If the perovskites appear on the market, the cost of solar energy can fall significantly.
The company Ookla, which has released service Speedtest.net six years ago, began to publish monthly reports that compare the speed of the Internet in different countries.
Recently, we published the first report of Ookla. It includes data on the fastest mobile and broadband Internet.
The leader speed of the mobile Internet were Norway, followed by the Netherlands, and in third place ended up in Hungary. In fourth place is Singapore, and the fifth — Malta.
As for fixed broadband, then the leader was Singapore, followed by South Korea, Hong Kong, Iceland and Romania.